Tuesday Briefing: Will Biden’s missile policy shift change the war in Ukraine?

The war in Ukraine has entered a critical phase, with conflict between Russian and Ukrainian forces continuing to escalate. Recently, President Joe Biden’s administration has been under intense scrutiny as it considers a change in US missile policy in relation to the ongoing war. This potential shift could have significant implications for Ukraine’s ability to defend itself, as well as the broader geopolitical landscape. But the question remains: will Biden’s missile policy change the course of the war in Ukraine?

The Current State of the War in Ukraine

The war, which began in February 2022, has caused widespread destruction across Ukraine, killing thousands of civilians and displacing millions. Despite receiving significant military assistance from the West, including the United States, Ukrainian forces are struggling to repel Russian advances in the east and south of the country. The US and NATO have provided Ukraine with advanced weapons systems such as anti-aircraft missiles, tanks and artillery, but some experts argue that Ukraine needs even more powerful weapons to match Russia’s military might.

Biden’s missile policy: A possible shift

President Biden’s administration is providing significant military aid to Ukraine, but the US has been cautious about the type of weapons it sends. The goal is to support Ukraine’s defense while avoiding escalation that leads to a direct conflict between NATO and Russia. However, recent discussions have raised the possibility of sending more advanced missile systems to Ukraine, including long-range missiles such as the ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile System).

These missiles, which have a range of up to 190 miles, could allow the Ukrainian military to strike Russian military targets behind enemy lines. This would be a significant shift from the current strategy, where most US military aid focuses on weapons that are effective in short-range or defensive operations. The shift in missile policy could provide Ukraine with the tools it needs to disrupt Russian supply lines, air defenses, and military infrastructure.

Why it matters for Ukraine

Ukraine has repeatedly requested long-range missile systems to improve its offensive capabilities. One of the challenges in the war has been Ukraine’s inability to target Russian bases that are far behind the front lines, where critical supply routes and command centers are located. If Biden approves the use of advanced missile systems, it would give Ukraine the ability to more effectively attack these targets, which could disrupt Russia’s military strategy.

The introduction of long-range missiles could also boost morale among the Ukrainian military and civilians. Knowing they have access to cutting-edge weapons could instill confidence in Ukraine’s ability to push back Russian forces, especially as the war continues.

Risks and concerns

However, this policy change involves risks. Sending long-range missiles to Ukraine could provoke Russia to escalate its military actions. Russia has already threatened to take more aggressive steps in response to arms shipments from Western countries, and the provision of advanced missiles could lead to even harsher retaliation. This could further destabilize the region and potentially start a wider conflict.

Another concern is that these advanced missile systems could fall into the wrong hands or be used in ways that escalate violence in civilian areas. The U.S. and NATO have been cautious about providing certain weapons to ensure they are used responsibly, and the potential for abuse remains a serious issue.

Global implications

A potential change in U.S. missile policy could also have far-reaching geopolitical consequences. As the war in Ukraine continues, countries around the world are closely watching how the West reacts to Russian aggression. If the U.S. increases its support for Ukraine, it could strain relations with Russia and other countries sympathetic to Russia’s position. On the other hand, increasing military support for Ukraine could strengthen the resolve of NATO members and reaffirm the U.S. commitment to defending its allies and democratic values.