Why the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia will not attend the G20 summit in Rio

Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, widely recognized as the country’s de facto leader, will not attend the upcoming G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. His absence has raised questions about Saudi Arabia’s diplomatic priorities and its stance on global issues. An analysis of the possible reasons and implications of this decision follows.

1. Reasons for Absence

Domestic commitments:

The Crown Prince may prioritize pressing domestic matters. With ambitious projects such as Vision 2030 and ongoing efforts to diversify Saudi Arabia’s economy, he may focus on internal strategies rather than international summits.

Geopolitical tensions:

The Middle East remains a region fraught with geopolitical tensions, including the conflict in Gaza and strained relations with neighboring countries. As a regional leader, MBS (as he is commonly known) may devote his efforts to addressing these urgent matters.

Strategic diplomacy:

The choice not to attend may also be a well-planned diplomatic move. Saudi Arabia may prefer to send a delegation, allowing other officials to represent its interests while also maintaining flexibility in its international relations.

2. Implications for Saudi Arabia

Global perception:

MBS’s absence could be interpreted as a sign of Saudi Arabia’s changing diplomatic strategy. It may signal a focus on regional affairs rather than global events, potentially leading to a change in the way other nations view its role in the international community.

Economic interests:

Not attending a major summit such as the G20 could impact Saudi Arabia’s efforts to attract foreign investment. The nation is actively promoting itself as an economic hub and a leader in renewable energy, and participation in such events often bolsters these narratives.

Relations with major powers:

The G20 is a forum for dialogue among the world’s largest economies. Saudi Arabia’s decision to stay away from direct engagement could have short-term implications for its relations with major global players such as the United States, China, and the European Union.

3. Saudi Arabia’s role in the G20 and global politics

Saudi Arabia has been an active member of the G20, hosting the summit in 2020. The nation has consistently emphasized issues such as energy sustainability, climate change, and economic reform. Its absence this year raises questions about its evolving priorities.

While the crown prince’s decision to skip the event reflects immediate concerns, it is unlikely to diminish Saudi Arabia’s long-term influence in the G20 or global affairs. Saudi Arabian officials will still attend, to ensure the nation’s voice is heard on key issues.

4. Looking Ahead

Although Mohammed bin Salman’s absence from the G20 summit is notable, Saudi Arabia’s strategic interests will likely continue to shape its global engagement. This decision may be a temporary adjustment rather than a shift in its broader diplomatic trajectory.

As the summit progresses, the role of Saudi Arabia’s delegation and its impact on discussions will provide further insight into the nation’s priorities and plans on the world stage.